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View From
The East

Written by Chua Soon Hock,
CIO and Founder of
Asia Genesis Asset Management

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Asia Genesis Macro Updates

December

2023

Global Macro Outlook & Current Trading Approach

Topics include:

- Asia Genesis Macro Fund

- Global Macroeconomic Trends

- Current Trading Approach

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View from the East

October

2023

China's Development on the Global Stage

 

A strong China makes the world stronger. Green China makes the world greener. Modern and prosperous China, supporting multilateralism and promoting win-win cooperation, contributes to a more peaceful and prosperous world.

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View from the East

September

2023

Why China is like Japan yet also very different from Japan.

 

I will not bet and invest in the China property market. But I will bet on the Chinese stock market, especially Big Tech and emerging unicorns, and those that can expand their businesses along the emerging nations in BRI.

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View from the East

August 

2023

China, China, China. 

 

Every headline concerning China has been bad or negative.
 

As a macro manager in Asia, after decades of reading Bloomberg, WSJ, CNN and more, you get repulsed by MSM’s extremely biased and persistently negative narrative every day. Objectivity is no more.

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Asia Genesis Macro Updates

June 

2023

Macro Updates from our CIO Chua Soon Hock

 

Topics include:

- Characteristics of Past 4 Decades

- Major Changes in Macro Factors Unlike Past 4 Decades

- Additional Uncertainties & Changes & Likely Impact

- Perspective on AI Trading

- Key risks and mitigants

- Enduring Lessons From the Management of Wealth

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View from the East 

March 

2023

The Importance of Risk Management 

The stock market has been exhibiting flip-flop behaviour during the months of January and February, which may be reflective of the current decade we are in.

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In this context, a nimble and tactical approach to trading is essential, with a keen eye on market psychology and an unwavering commitment to disciplined risk management.

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View from the East 

January 

2023

What are some key issues impacting the world, nations and markets in 2023?

The advancement in technology and its applications have affected today’s financial markets significantly. 80% of active trading is now done by programs, AI, or technical models, which leads to a few critical characteristics.

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If we can deeply understand the manifestations, we can profit from it.

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Outlook 2023

December

2022

New Regime of Heightened Market Volatility

The year 2023 is likely to have its share of turbulence, where we will witness shorter bull markets with more frequent bear phases, with their attendant implications.


Asia Genesis Macro Fund is designed to be ‘all-weather’, to achieve investors' twin goals of capital preservation and positive annual compounding. We aim to deliver consistent positive returns with low downside volatility across different market environments - bull, bear and range markets.

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View from the East

November

2022

What Kind of Investment Decade Will 2020-2023 Be?​

1980 to 2020, 4 decades witnessed steadily lower costs of capital as US FED led the world in cutting interest rates from about 22% to zero and added much money supply in any economic weakness and market crash in a generally trending deflationary period.


But what about the current decade?
 

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View from the East

September

2022

Why Bitter History Occasionally Repeats Itself After 3 Generations?

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Now it is an established fact that the FED had made a major mistake for not addressing emerging high inflation in 2021 but instead insisted that inflation then was transitory and added fuel to it with adding further money supply via buying of $120bln of bonds per month.

But why did that happen?
 

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View from the East

August

2022

Typical Bear or Unusual Bear Market?

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Will September and October month be the typical bearish months in a bear market year reaching a bottom in October, followed by a rally towards the year-end?

I am persuaded that this phenomenon of past 40 years, where interest rates were generally trending lower will likely not be applicable.  2 key fundamental factors differ...  

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View from the East

June

2022

Japan, Sit Tight & Brave the Storm

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BOJ continues to adopt ultra-easy monetary policy that adds fuel to the trending high inflation in Japan, against other G7 policies direction. JGB 10-year yield is to be capped at 0.25% by BOJ, while US 10-year T-note is at 3.3% and China’s at 2.82%.


Meanwhile, Yen is the weakest major currency and...

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View from the East

April

2022

Brace for a world with lots of trouble

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The macro risks of supply chain disruption from escalating war and thoughtless sanctions are increasing globally. USA trade war with China which disrupted supply chain on sanctioned goods especially semiconductor chips have now moved further to Russia that not only disrupted oil and gas supply but essentials food like wheat and fertilizer for planting. Europe and many poorer nations will face very high energy cost and starvation if these sanctions continued into winter. 

The freezing of Russia foreign reserves and confiscation of Russian billionaire assets...

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View from the East

May

2022

The Politicised US Led Global Economic Environment

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Cold War politics are today’s reality. Our market analysis of macro developments and impact on markets need to actively consider the policies and anticipate the implications and impact.

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US is adopting a two-prong approach against two identified perceived competitor/enemy, Russia and China.

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The containment of Russia is through NATO and EU, supporting the ongoing proxy war...

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Outlook 2022

November

2021

Looking Beyond – A Different Macro Environment

Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, we have seen several developments that were distinctive but not beyond our expectations. Here are a few trends which we have highlighted earlier:


1. Central bank interventions resulting in massive liquidity and significant asset inflation
2. Elevated government budget deficits and debt levels in private sectors
3. Intensification of geo-political risks as China-US tensions heightened
4. Rise of digitalization of information, artificial intelligence and social media

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View from the East

September
2021

Three Major Economic Management Models Have Arose Among The USA, China and EU

USA model of neo-liberal capitalism with the following characteristics:
1. Main emphasis is expansive monetary policy anchored on a global US dollar currency driven by consumption
2. Turbo-charged wealth creation though the financial markets
3. Strong appreciation of stocks, bonds and properties
4. Trickle down economics through wealth effects
5. Active merger and acquisition corporate market...

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View from the East

June
2021

A Strange “Goldilocks”

Recent inflation numbers in the USA are very strong. CPI annual rate increased from 4.2% to 5%, while PPI was at 6.6% for May. Compared to zero interest rates, the inflation-interest rate spreads are huge implying monetary policies are extremely inflationary. Home prices are surging across America. Nevertheless, market players and the Treasury bond markets behave in almost absolute confidence of Fed’s Powell that this is transitory and even deflationary later. Ironically, there was a quick sharp unwinding of reflation trades pushing 30 years bond yields down from nearly 2.5% to 2% quickly, after which it then reversed to 2.3%....

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View from the East

May
2021

The Inevitability of Higher Taxes in the USA

Through this ongoing pandemic, the US administration has incurred trillions of budget deficits on top of its near out-of- control accumulated deficits. While at every financial crisis, huge amounts of money were printed that resulted in two less than ideal situations: 1. The socializing of costs and the privatizing of profits at taxpayers’ expense and 2. The ability of big MNCs and the super-rich to access liquidity via the neo-liberal capitalist banking system resulting in greater wealth creation for them and a widening of the already huge wealth gap and distribution between the super-rich 0.1% and the rest....

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View from the East

April 
2021

End April marked a one-year of track record after a ten-year hiatus. It has been an engaging, interesting and increasingly satisfying journey. The first 5 months had been difficult. I made some mistakes including under-estimating the ferocity of the relentless stock markets recovery and dilution to traders’ weaker performance.

 

I observe that a major (new) factor in active tactical trading is to figure out the impact from the high proportion of trading done by machines (programs). This increasing phenomenon results in faster and sharper short-term moves, which will be completed sooner than in the past, as these programs basically have the same signals and there is no delay in execution....

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View from the East

March 
2021

Archegos Capital demise though shocking again affirmed my conviction that there is much hidden key risk for hedge funds and family offices who are running leveraged and concentrated bets in dealing with especially some US investment bank prime brokers. There are a few realities with regard to hidden risks in this space:
1. Never play an opened hand with these prime brokers. Despite confidentiality somehow at critical moments your concentrated positions will be leaked. And you will be the hunted.
2. Prime brokers have hypothecation risk with your excess funds placed with them.
3. Be wary of big house players....

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View from the East

January 
2021

It was a volatile January with stock market initial euphoric surge continuingly supported and influenced by frenzy short squeeze in hype up stocks (Tesla, GameStop, etc.) in platforms like Reddit, playing Pipe Piper to millions of Millennial novice speculators into options buying and cultish herd behaviour, justifying as inflicting social justice as Brave Young Ones versus Establishment propaganda. But as shorts among some prominent hedge funds were forced to cut out significant positions, losing tens of billions and the reality of month-end options delivery into actual crazily priced stocks kick in, the stock market declined sharply into its last few days of trading erasing its earlier gains....

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2020 & Beyond 2020: Major Rewards & Major Risks

November 
2020

2020 has been a unique year in many ways.
The world was devastated by Covid-19 pandemic at a human, social and partially economic level.
Countries and leaders responded in different ways, with a range of vastly different results.
Generally, societies that have authoritarian governments with discipline and cooperation from citizens did much better like China, Vietnam and many East Asian nations... 

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